A grassroots supported CharterChallenge for Fair Voting has finally won its day in court: Sep 25, 2023.
However, this doesn’t leave enough time for a new electoral system to be implemented by the next federal election, which is only 2 years away: Oct 20, 2025 (1)
Here’s one possible timeline scenario showing the various blocks of time required for each step:
First: Time between Hearing and Judgement = 5 mos? (2)
Second: Time for the government to act on a declaration that First Past the Post is unconstitutional = One year to 18 months (3)
Third: Appeals and Stay (3) = ?
Fourth: Electoral Officer’s required time for logistics and voters to learn new system before voting = 2 years (4)
When you add up these blocks of time, here’s what you get:
If there is no appeal, then here’s a rough calculation of a one possible timeline:
6 mos for court to rule
+ 18 mos for govt to make new law
+ 24 mos for Electoral Officer to set up the logistics of a new electoral system
Total = 48 mos (4 years)
If there is an appeal, then the total time is even longer.
Therefore we will almost certainly not have a new electoral system in place for the 2025 federal election.
Nevertheless, if the 2025 election produces a minority government instead of a majority, then, according to past experience, there will likely be another early election in only two years (2027) instead of a full term of four years (2029).
If the First Past The Post system is declared unconstitutional then a new electoral system could be in place in time for an election in 2027 even if it takes four years to put a new system into law and into place logistically.
The wild card is this: What if an appeal takes place, and how long would that take?
But here’s a card that’s not so wild: Such a precedent set at the federal level will almost certainly affect the future of all provincial electoral systems.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Footnotes:
Footnote 1: Fixed election date
Quote: “the maximum duration of a parliament by ensuring that it ends no later than October of the fourth calendar year after its commencement, while leaving the possibility of an earlier end unaffected.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_election_dates_in_Canada#Federal
Date of Oct 20, 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_election_dates_in_Canada#Next_elections
Footnote 2: Time between Hearing and Judgement
Past record shows:
2 months in case of same-sex marriage:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_Re_Same-Sex_Marriage
4 months in R v Morgentaler
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_v_Morgentaler
5 months in Vriend v Alberta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vriend_v_Alberta
Footnote 3: Time for the government to act on a declaration that First Past the Post is unconstitutional: One year to 18 months:
See video ” Voices from the Movement, featuring Jesse Hitchcock, Nicolas Rouleau & Antony Hodgson” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdi5gMBw-os
See 57:59: “What we’ve asked for in the challenge is a declaration that First Past The Post is unconstitutional. A declaration is a court order …so it means the government is back to the drawing board and would have to come up with a law that wouldn’t be unconstitutional.
See 59:59 “Within a year we’d have a new law.”
See 1:03:16: Question from Dave Meslin: “How long does a government usually have to update their legislation?”
Quote from constitutional lawyer Nicolas Rouleau:
“The [previous case of] ‘Medical Assistance In Dying’ went past the deadline. I think they got two extensions…For big laws like this that are struck down the government gets a year. I forget whether we asked for a year or 18 months of suspension in our notice of application but basically within a year or 18 months you’d have a new law in place unless there was an appeal in which case there’d probably be a stay pending the appeal.”
Footnote 4:
Star article from July 8, 2016: Chief electoral officer warns time running out on overhauling system: Paul Wells.
Quote from article: ““We need at least two years,” Mayrand said”
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.